摘要：环境与经济联系紧密，它们之间相互影响、相互制约，良好的环境是经济发展的基础，经济发展对环境的变化起着主导作用。海门市位于长江和沿海两大开放带的交汇点上，是中国黄金水道与黄金海岸“T”字型的结合点，经济飞速发展的同时也面临环境日益污染的现实。实现经济与环境的协调发展对海门市可持续发展具有重大意义。本文运用环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论范式，对1992-2012年期间海门市经济增长与环境变化之间的关系进行了实证研究，模拟出海门市环境库兹涅茨曲线，分析其曲线形态特征和形成原因，以及海门市在未来的环境发展变化趋势。结果显示海门市工业“三废”排放基本符合EKC曲线的趋势，且都处于倒U型的左侧，即污染还处于逐年升高趋势中。未来，随着技术进步和经济结构的转型升级以及政府对环境保护的力度增强，海门市环境污染水平将会进入下降阶段。55945

毕业论文关键词：海门市，环境库兹涅茨曲线，经济发展，环境污染

Abstract: Environmental and economic tie between them, mutual influence, mutual constraints, a good environment is the basis of economic development, economic development and change of environment play a dominant role. Haimen city is located in the Yangtze River and the junction of the two open coastal belt point, is the combination of golden waterway Chinese and Gold Coast "T" - shaped, with the fast development of economy is also facing environmental pollution reality. To realize the coordinated development of economy and environment is of great significance to the sustainable development of Haimen city. This paper uses the theory of environmental Kuznets curve, the relationship between economic growth and environmental change of Haimen City during the period of 1992-2012 to make an empirical study on the simulation of sea retail sales, environmental Kuznets curve, the curve analysis of morphological characteristics and causes of formation, and Haimen in environmental change of future trend. The results showed that the Haimen Industrial "three wastes" discharge basically conforms to the EKC curve, and are in the inverted U type on the left side, namely pollution is increasing year by year. Future, along with the transformation and upgrading of technology progress and economic structure and government efforts to protect the environment enhancement, Haimen environmental pollution level will fall into the phase.

Keywords: Haimen city, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Economic development, Environment pollution

目  录

1 引言 3

2 环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）理论 4

2.1 EKC理论简介 4

2.2 EKC理论计量模型 5

2.3 EKC理论解释 5

2.4 EKC理论国内外研究现状 6

3 海门市环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究 7

3.1 经济发展情况 7

3.2 工业“三废”排放情况 7

3.3 数据分析及结论 8

4 海门市环境建设的建议 11

结语 13

参考文献 14

致谢 15

1 引言

环境与经济联系紧密,它们之间相互影响、相互制约,良好的环境是经济发展的基础,经济发展对环境的变化起着主导作用。环境经济学中，研究者经常运用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）来描述经济发展与环境质量之间的联系，EKC曲线显示随着经济的发展，人均收入水平的增加，环境污染物的排放量是先增加，在到达某个拐点后逐渐下降，两者呈倒“U”型关系。近20年来，海门经济飞速发展，人均GDP从1992年的1944元到2012年的66300元，增长了34倍多，年均增长19.3%。随着经济的增长，海门市环境污染的程度也在逐步加深，实现经济与环境的协调发展对海门可持续发展具有重大意义和紧迫性。因此，研究海门经济增长与环境演变具有较强的理论性和现实意义。本文通过对海门市历年GDP数据及环境指标数据的建模分析，深入探讨海门市环境质量演进是如何变化的，是否完全符合EKC的倒“U”型曲线，并对海门市未来EKC曲线形状进行预测分析。