摘要：近年来为实现旅游业带动经济发展，淮安十分重视旅游项目的开发和建设。但由于种种不确定因素，淮安旅游项目的发展存在诸多风险，再加上国内旅游项目风险研究理论体系尚不成熟，因此对淮安旅游项目风险进行研究拥有一定的理论价值和实践意义。阅读相关文献得到国内外旅游领域风险研究现状并确定研究内容和方法，接着根据淮安旅游项目现状及旅游项目风险来源识别淮安旅游项目风险的类型和影响因素。然后基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对淮安旅游项目风险进行综合评价与分析，发现淮安旅游项目整体风险等级为中等，其中设计、经济、自然类风险大，管理、市场等风险中等。最后提出加强旅游项目规划布局、提升项目产品吸引力、关注旅游时政、完善旅游项目管理等风险应对建议。56595

毕业论文关键词：旅游项目，风险识别，层次分析法，模糊综合评价法，风险应对

Abstract：In recent years, Huaian attaches great importance to the development and construction of the tourism project in order to strengthen economic development as well as tourism development. But risks occur during the development of Huaian tourism projects due to various uncertain factors, what’s more, domestic tourism project risk research theory system is not mature, so the study of Huaian tourism project risk has certain theoretical value and practical significance. Firstly related literature are read to get the research present situation of domestic and foreign tourist areas’ risk, then the research content and method are determined . Secondly Huaian tourism project risk types and influence factors are recognized according to the actuality of Huaian tourism projects and the cause of tourism projects risk. Thirdly Huaian tourism project risk is analyzed and evaluated on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, then finding that the level of Huaian tourism project overall risk is medium, the level of economic, design and natural risk is high and the others is medium . Finally some suggestions of Huaian tourism project risk are given such as strengthen the layout of tourism project planning, enhance the attraction of the project product, focus on the current politics of tourism, improve the tourism project management.

Keywords: tourism projects, risk identification, the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the risk response

目  录

1 引言 4

1.1 研究背景 4

1.2国内、外研究现状 4

2淮安旅游项目现状 4

2.1旅游项目概念 4

2.2淮安旅游项目现状 5

3淮安旅游项目的风险识别 6

3.1宏观环境风险 6

3.2项目核心风险 7

4淮安旅游项目的风险评价 7

4.1层次分析法（AHP） 8

4.2模糊综合评价法 9

4.3淮安旅游项目风险结果 11

4.4淮安旅游项目的风险评价 14

5 淮安旅游项目的风险应对建议 15

结论 17

参考文献 18

致谢 19

附件1淮安旅游项目风险评价调查表