上海市房地产泡沫的测度预警及泡沫防范
毕业论文关键词：房地产泡沫；熵权法；功效系数法；测度预警
Measurement, Early-warning and Prevention on the Real Estate Bubble of Shanghai
Abstract Chinese people are always very concerned about house prices. Real estate industry, which is highly interconnected, can lead to a series of economic and social problems. Real estate overheating problems gradually become the common concern of the society. Whether the real estate market exists bubble or not has become the focus of debate among researchers. This paper firstly analyzes the current situation of the real estate market throughout the country, the overview of Shanghai city and its current situation of the real estate market. Then, the indicators are chosen according to the actual situation of Shanghai city and the availability of data. The situation of Shanghai real estate market during the period of 2000 to 2015 is analyzed. Four indicators which are The ratio of the real estate development investment growth rate and GDP growth, Housing-price-to-income Ratio, The ratio of real estate investment in the total social investment in fixed assets, The land price foam multiples are calculated by Ramsey model, Market modification method and some other methods. Shanghai real estate bubble degree of calendar year is indicated by the value of K which is calculated by using the entropy method and the efficacy coefficient method. The results show that, during the period of 2000 to 2015,the value of K, which indicates the real estate bubble of Shanghai, was lower than 100, the reasonable value of no-bubble. The value of K was at attention level from 2000 to 2008.The foam, affected by ‘Four Thousand Billion Plan’ and three rounds of regulation and control, was between alert level and attention level from 2009 to 2011.However, with the increasingly high price of land and the change of relevant housing policies, the real estate bubble of Shanghai has returned to alert level since 2012. According to the measured results, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions in terms of land policy, the structure of housing security, household registration system and down-payment. I hope the research technique, conclusion and relevant policies and suggestions of this paper can provide reference for the research on the real estate bubble of Shanghai and other cities.
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