摘要并购活动的成功与否会给并购的绩效带来直接影响，而在并购过程中股票估值对并购 所产生的影响不容小觑。为了更全面的了解股票估值与并购的关系，给并购方提升并购成 功率提出参考意见，本文选取 2005 年至 2015 年沪深两市中发生的上市公司并购事件作 为样本，通过构建 Logistic 回归模型来研究目标公司存在股票高估值对并购成功率所产生 的影响。实证结果表明，目标公司的股票存在被高估的情况会提升并购的成功率，且被高 估程度越高，并购最终成功的可能性就越大。在并购过程中选择何种支付方式对并购成功 率的影响并不显著，并购双方关联交易比重越大、第一大股东持股比例越高、标的公司股 价波动率越大、标的公司的市值越低，就越能提升并购成功率。77171

毕业论文关键词 股票高估值 并购成功率 Logistic 回归

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title Can the high valuation increase the success rate of M & A？

Abstract The success of M & A activity or not will have a direct impact on the performance of mergers and acquisitions, and in the process of merger and acquisition, effects of stock valuation of M & A should not be underestimated。 For a more comprehensive understanding of the  stock valuation and mergers and acquisitions, to the acquiring party enhance the success rate of M & A put forward suggestions, this paper selects the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges between 2005 and 2015 M & A events as a sample, by constructing the logistic regression model to study the target company stock overestimate the value of M & A, and the successful rate and influence。 The empirical results show that the presence of Target Corp stock overvalued situation for listing Corporation mergers and acquisitions has a driving effect, the higher the degree of the listing Corporation's stock is overvalued, the greater the possibility of the success of the merger。 In mergers and acquisitions in the process of choosing payment of merger and acquisition success rate was not significantly affected, the merger and acquisition related parties transactions, the larger proportion, the largest shareholder shareholding ratio is high, the standard of the company's stock price volatility rate is, the lower the market value of the target company, the more to enhance the success rate of M & A。

Keywords  High valuation  M & A success rate  Logistic regression

本 科 毕 业 论   文 第 I 页

目 次

1 引言 1

2 文献评述与研究假设 2

2。1 影响并购成功率的因素探究 2

2。2 股票估值理论的研究 3

2。3 关于股票驱动并购市场理论的评述 4

3 研究设计 6

3。 1 研究假设 6

3。 2 样本选取 6

3 。 3 模 型 构 建 8

4 实证结果及分析 9

4。1 描述性分析