The feasibility and rationality of the methods described above are verified through the Nanjing urban rail transit。 The results show that: under existing network topology, the risks of urban rail transit network operation change dynamically: one the one hand, the more trains plan, the bigger the passengers are, and the more heterogeneous the distribution of micro-properties are, once the stations and intervals fail, the greater the influence on the network function is, the more vulnerable the network is, and the greater the risk is; on the other hand, the more unbalanced the passengers distribution is, the lower the whole network connectivity is。 Additionally, the risk indicators interact each other; the change of any indicator will affect other indicators, which result in the increase of network operation risk。 The safety state of Nanjing urban rail transit network is lower in morning and evening peak than other periods, and is lowest in morning peak。

  The studies prove the above method can make up for the shortcomings of existing risk analysis and safety assessment of urban rail transit operation, find the weak links and risk control point in whole  networks,  achieve  the  change  from  single-line  management  to  holistic-network management, and provide the theory and method for improving the ability of risk control and safety。

Keywords:urban rail transit; network operation;  risk;  safety assessment 

                           目录

1  绪论 3

1。1研究目的和意义 3

1。2 研究背景 3

1。3国内外研究现状 4

1。3。1世界现状 4

1。3。2 国内现状 5

1。2。1事故影响评价 6

1。2。2网络科学 8

1。2。3存在的问题 9

1。4研究内容和方法 9

2 轨道交通网络化运营安全影响因素分析 11

2。1国内外地铁运营事故统计分析 11

2。1。1事故统计 11

2。1。2事故类型分布规律 12

2。2事故影响因素分析 15

2。2。1人员因素分析 15

2。2。2设施设备因素 15

2。2。3环境条件因素 17

2。2。4管理机制因素 18

3 网络化运营安全性分析 19

3。1 网络化运营的定义和特点 19

3。1。1网络化运营风险定义和特点 20

3。1。2网络化运营安全定义和特点 20

3。2复杂网络在城市轨道交通领域的应用 21

3。3 关于城市轨道交通网络特性分析研究存在的问题 22

4 基于网络的事故影响评价方法 23

4。1网络化运营安全效率 23