摘要：最近几年,我国的经济增长速度很快，房地产市场变得越来越大。论文简要介绍了课题研究的背景和意义，论文讲述了国内外关于科技园周边商品住宅价格状况。通过对商品住宅价格的探讨,力求对上海杨浦区同济科技园周边商品住宅的价格有一个比较全面的认识。通过对商品住宅价格的决定性因素的分析，介绍了上海市商品住宅市场状况后，收集了大量的同济科技园周边商品住宅价格资料，利用Spss软件进行数据建模，回归分析了环同济科技园周边商品住宅价格的未来趋势以及产生这种结果的原因。本文采用的分析、研究方法对同类商品住宅价格预测具有一定的参考价值。69511

毕业论文关键词： 科技园 ；商品住宅价格；线性分析

An Analysis of the Price Trend of Commercial Housing around Tong ji Science and Technology Park

Abstract：In recent years, China's economic growth rate is very fast, the real estate market has become increasingly large. The paper briefly introduces the background and significance of the research, the paper tells the domestic and foreign prices about the commercial housing prices around the science and technology park. Through the commodity housing prices, and strive to Shanghai Yangpu District Tongji Science and Technology Park, the price of commercial housing around a more comprehensive understanding. Based on the analysis of the decisive factors of commodity housing prices, this paper introduces the situation of commercial housing market in Shanghai, collects a large number of commodity prices around Tongji Science and Technology Park, studies and analyzes the commodity housing price forecasting model, and uses Spss software to build data Model, the future trend of commercial housing prices and the reasons for the emergence of such a result. The analysis and research methods adopted in this paper have certain reference value for the forecast of similar commodity housing prices.

Key words:  technology park ；housing price； linear analysis

目录

1绪论 2

1.1 研究背景及意义 3

1.2 国内外文献综述 5

1.3 研究方法 6

2 商品住宅价格 7

2.1商品住宅价格的定义 7

2.2 商品住宅价格的基本特征 7

2.3 商品住宅价格的内在意义 8

3商品住宅价格影响因素分析 10

3.1 地理位置的影响 10

3.2 商品住宅地价的影响因素 10

3.2.1地租或土地纯收益 10

3.2.2土地资产 10

3.2.3 利息率 10

3.2.4 土地使用权年限 11

3.2.5 土地供求状况 11

3.3 商品住宅本身因素的影响 11

3.4 各种政策的影响 12

3.5 经济因素 13

3.6社会因素 14

4上海市商品住宅市场状况 15

4.1 上海市商品住宅基本情况 15

4.2 上海市商品住宅价格现状 16

4.3 上海市商品住宅价格的特点 17

5商品住宅价格预测模型